Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
